Why Trump Negotiates Like a Haggler, Not a Diplomat
The Trump Soap Opera. A Story About Power, Real and Perceived, and Who ‘They’re’ Real Enemy Is.
The Weekly Walkaway highlights negotiation in its ‘good’, ‘bad’ and sometimes ‘downright ugly’ forms. Issue No. 107 (7th March 2025)
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Why Trump Negotiates Like a Haggler, Not a Diplomat
This week's Weekly Walkaway dissects Trump’s negotiation style, arguing that he approaches global diplomacy like a commercial negotiator rather than a statesman. The author, Giles Morgan, a commercial negotiator, breaks down Trump’s tactics using the Kahvay Negotiation Compass and PLANT framework—which assess Power, Longevity, Advancement, Need, and Trust—to analyse his dealings with key global players. The original transcript comes from the podcast hosted by Peter Watson at Watson Daily. The podcast can be found here.
Key Takeaways:
Trump's Negotiation Persona:
Trump exhibits traits of a Haggler & Dealer—cold, hard, dismissive, and arrogant. His focus is short-term wins rather than long-term alliances.
Ukraine – The Power Play of a Haggler:
Uses coercion and extreme positions to force compliance.
Sees Ukraine as a financial asset rather than a strategic ally.
Trust = Zero—views Ukraine as historically untrustworthy.
Russia – The Cautious Warmth of a Dealer:
Shifts to a more cooperative stance to keep Russia away from China.
Despite U.S. financial leverage over Russia, Trump avoids flexing his power.
Trust = Surprisingly Medium, as Trump sees Putin as reliable.
EU/UK Coalition – The Reluctant Diplomat:
Trump sees Europe as weak and dependent on the U.S. but needs their support for Ukraine.
Possible “Good Cop, Bad Cop” strategy at play:
Bad Cop: Trump & Vance (aggressive, dismissive).
Good Cop: European leaders (calm, cooperative).
Wants to weaken the EU for easier individual negotiations.
China – The Silent Battle for Dominance:
The real opponent. Trump’s harsh stance on Ukraine signals strength to China.
Trust = None. Seeks to weaken China’s economic grip on the U.S.
His tough stance on allies is a prelude to a harder fight with China.
The Political Soap Opera & Trump's Endgame
Trump’s negotiation style isn’t just about world leaders—it’s also a performance for his voters. By turning diplomacy into a high-stakes spectacle, he creates the perception of power and control, reinforcing key promises.
But at What Cost?
Could alienating Ukraine weaken U.S. credibility?
Will Russia turn against him in the long run?
Will China call his bluff?
The author warns that Trump’s obsession with power (real and perceived) is a dangerous game—one that could ultimately lead to war.
P.S. We've just soft launched Level 1 of 3 eLearning. The Negotiation Edge: Level 1 – Core Skills for Recruitment & Professional Services. And for the next 24 days you’ll be able to grab Level 1 at a discounted price. £150 reduced to £75 and in return we’d like your feedback.
Why Trump Negotiates Like a Haggler, Not a Diplomat
The Trump Soap Opera. A Story About Power, Real and Perceived, and Who ‘They’re’ Real Enemy Is.
Hello Walkawayers, so much has happened in the 24x7 Soap Opera, that is Trump. I wake up and I’m stunned at what the next episode will bring. It's mesmerising isn't it?! I know, it’s also disgusting and really really uncomfortable but still I find myself transfixed.. Like I’m watching an airliner spiral, in a deadly spin towards the ground and I just can't take my eyes off it, although I know people are going to die!
And I was lucky enough to be hosted by the knowledgeable and lovely Peter Watson of Watsons Daily in his mid week podcast where he asked to discuss the very same subject.
So pull up that chair, grab a coffee and let’s talk about what’s been breaking the headlines, raising heart rates and turning friends to foe in this week's The Weekly Walkaway.
Now before we start I should add; I am not a diplomat of any political or geopolitical standing. I have never held office and if you’re lucky enough, I never will. But, I am a commercial negotiator and commentator. I train, coach and consult with commercial clients.
Secondly I’m not going to go over what has already been said by millions of other commentators, comedians and politicians. No, this week I’m gonna to step away from what is considered right and wrong and I’m gonna take a cold, hard, analytical view of the current state and the ‘why’.
It will be uncomfortable and it will be contentious and it will give you a different perspective.
The Negotiation Compass
As a reminder at Kahvay, we use our simple but powerful tool: the Negotiation Compass. It helps us map out different negotiation personae based on an analytical approach, analysing P.L.A.N.T, which then guides possible behaviours and approaches.
Simply put:
East: Haggler & Dealer – cold, hard, arrogant and dismissive;
West: Engineer & Diplomat – warm, cooperative, polite and collaborative.
Now, ask yourself: Where is Trump on The Negotiation Compass?
P.L.A.N.T: The Negotiation Compass - Analysis
To understand Trump’s approach, let’s apply PLANT (Power, Longevity, Advanced, Need, Trust), the framework we use to analyse negotiation positions. So lets ask these questions on behalf of Trump:
Ukraine: The Power Play of a Haggler
Power: Real. He controls the purse strings and military aid. His leverage is enormous.
Longevity: None. He has no interest in Ukraine, he just wants their raw materials.
Advanced (Complexity): Low. For him, it’s just money. $500bil return is his anchor.
Need: Minimal. Ukraine needs the U.S. far more than the U.S. needs Ukraine.
Trust: Zero. Trump states that Ukraine has been and is untrustworthy.
Trump’s approach to Ukraine is pure power-based coercion. He’s positioning himself as the ultimate decision-maker, forcing them to play by his rules. This is classic Haggler behaviour; cold, hard, arrogant and dismissive. Using extreme positions. Tearing up past agreements. Using underhand, manipulative tactics etc. It is all about short term gains and winning as much of the tabled value as possible.
Sound familiar?
Russia: The Cautious Warmth of a Dealer
Power: Real, but restrained. The U.S. could crush Russia financially, but Trump isn't flex’ing that muscle… Yet.
Longevity: Medium. He sees a long-term strategic relationship with Russia, particularly to keep them distanced from China.. And a friend in need is a friend in deed!
Advanced: Low. Well it seems low anyway. Not much has been tabled. No conditions set against Russia and so again, it seems to be all about money.
Need: Medium. He needs to split the axis of Russia and China. And he believes he and Putin have mutual interests. Or maybe, just maybe, Putin has something on Trump.
Trust: Medium. I know right. It seems, surprisingly, that Trump believes Putin keeps his word, which is either naive or strategic.
Trump’s approach to Russia moves away from Haggler and leans more into the South, between the Dealer and Engineer; He drops the arrogance and dismissive behaviours and he comes across as much warmer. This is because arrogance and dismissive behaviours would turn off Putin and push him closer to China. He starts to talk about mutual benefits and interests. Look, I know his trust in Putin is perplexing, but it does explain his obvious shift in his behaviour from dismissive to cooperative. And I have no idea what Putin has on Trump but maybe, just maybe Putin he does. Because in commercial negotiations you’d never, ever, ever move from East to West, on The Negotiation Compass, without conditions that protect you from the risk of your counterpart behaving on the East and exploiting you. Go figure.
The EU/UK Coalition: The Reluctant Diplomat
Power: Medium, limited. But Trump feels that there are three countries with power, and The EU/UK Coalition is not part of that club. His perception has become his reality.
Longevity: Yes. The US and The EU/UK coalition have a long history of economic and military collaboration and yet Trump/Vance are isolationists.
Advanced: High. Negotiating with multiple European nations is messy and complex. All those competing needs and slow bureaucracy. (Probably why he dislikes negotiating with the block and prefers to negotiate individually).
Need: Medium. Trump wants to be loved, he wants to be a King and treated as a King. And we have monarchies. He craves their blessing. He needs The EU/UK Coalition’s support to get a deal done in Ukraine but doesn’t like admitting it and would prefer them broken up and weakened so easier to negotiate with from a more powerful position.
Trust: Low. Trump sees The EU/UK Coalition like a lazy employee leaching off The USA.
With The EU/UK Coalition, Trump is caught in a conflict between Dealer and Engineer. He wants to dictate terms.. Cold, hard, arrogant and dismissive but he knows he can’t push too hard. He needs their support. Not only does Trump need The EU/UK Coalition to take over the defence of our side of The Atlantic, to free up The USA to focus on The Pacific he needs their support to bring Ukraine to heal and is maybe.. just maybe here’s where it gets interesting; Trump & Co. are playing a classic good cop, bad cop routine.
Bad Cop: Vance. The attack dog. Aggressive, dismissive, and designed to rattle Zelensky.
Good Cop: Europe (Stammer, Macron). The “We’re here to help, don’t listen to the scary man” voices.
It’s a well-worn strategy, and it works, why? It creates an East / West approach making Ukraine feel relieved when the "good cop" takes over, and so manipulates them into making concessions.
China: The Silent Battle for Dominance
Power: Lower than he wants to admit. China holds US debt and controls key supply chains and isn’t easily bullied! Americans see China as the threat, not Russia.
Longevity: High. The US China relationship is deeply intertwined economically.
Advanced: Low. Tariffs just go to prove that all Trump thinks about is cash..
Need: High. The U.S. needs China’s supply chain, rare earth minerals and pharmaceutical ingredients. They also control US debt.
Trust: Non-existent. He openly distrusts China and seeks to weaken them.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Trump is cleverer than he portrays. I know it’s dumb to say this but you should never show your opponent your full potential and I don't believe anything ever happens by accident so.. Lets assume he knows what he’s doing and if you think last week's Ukraine bashing was not planned-out and staged and also all about Ukraine, think again. The real audience? China. In my opinion, Trump sees China as his real opponent, not Ukraine or Europe. His arrogant stance against Ukraine is just a message to China and a way to show strength and create the perception of power. He’s setting the stage, he’s preconditioning them, and Iran and Russia, for tougher negotiations to come.
Trump is sending a signal: “Look how I handle my so-called allies. Imagine what I’ll do to my enemies.”
He’s creating perceived power, the illusion that he controls the board. And the key word there is perceived.. because power in negotiation isn’t just about what you have; it’s about what others believe you have.
What's more he’s using the public spectacle as leverage. He needs to be seen as powerful because, in reality, China holds more cards than he’d like.
The Soap Opera Effect: Playing to the Audience
Before his first stint in the White House he had held no political office.
Trump and Vance aren’t just negotiating with world leaders, they’re also negotiating with their voters. They’ve turned this into a TV spectacle, a political soap opera, something out of The West Wing or House of Cards.
Why? Because it sells. Humans are lazy and they easily follow a cult or a spectacle and by god have they made a spectacle. It's addictive and fascinating and it hooks you in. Why is this important for Trump; because he’s able to control the narrative. It's all about Power. Trump made made promises, promises means ratings/votes and so he needs to be seen to be delivering on them:
Make America Great Again;
A Peace Deal Between Russia and Ukraine;
Increase the Individual Wealth of the American People.
And here’s the kicker: They’re winning.
They are controlling the narrative. By making every international decision feel like a dramatic, high-stakes episode, they’re giving their voters exactly what they want: the perception of power, control, and strength.
But At What Cost?
What happens next? Are these tactics sustainable? Will the cost of this negotiation strategy come back to bite the USA and the US people in the ass?
Will alienating Ukraine weaken America’s credibility with US allies?
Will cozying up to Russia send the wrong message to China?
Will China call his bluff?
Or… will it all work out? The EU/UK takes on more responsibility in its backyard, The Russia/Ukraine war ends and China kowtows to the might of the USA.
The problem with geopolitics is that the negotiation game never ends, it is constant and continuous. For governments with 4 to 5 year terms they have a finite amount of time to make their mark but for monarchs, dictatorships and elected dictators they are able to play a much longer game. So the stakes are higher than ever. Because at the end of the day Trump wants to be a King, this is all about power, real and perceived and that kind of power leads to WAR.
And on that bombshell have a great weekend Walkawayers.. Oh and another thing..
P.S. We've just soft launched Level 1 of 3 eLearning. The Negotiation Edge: Level 1 – Core Skills for Recruitment & Professional Services. And for the next 24 days you’ll be able to grab Level 1 at a discounted price. £150 reduced to £75 and in return we’d like your feedback.